Bitcoin (BTC) Defends $100K as MicroStrategy Weighs Share Increase

By Omkar Godbole (All events ET till indicated in some other case)

Bitcoin held above $100,000, with VET, ENA, LINK and LDO posting notable constructive elements a day after President Donald Trump bypassed mentioning crypto or a strategic bitcoin reserve in his inauguration speech.

Alerts from the bitcoin selections market level out heightened expectations for short-term price turbulence alongside indicators of rising risk aversion amongst retailers since Trump’s swearing in, primarily based on Griffin Ardern, head of selections shopping for and promoting and evaluation at crypto financial platform BloFin.

That might probably be on account of numerous causes, along with MicroStrategy’s impending shareholder vote at current on rising its accepted shares to help its bitcoin searching for approach. In addition to, the Monetary establishment of Japan (BOJ) is expected to increase rates on Friday, which might strengthen the yen. The late July BOJ cost hike torched the foreign exchange’s rally, destabilizing risk property, along with cryptocurrencies.

There’s moreover uncertainty stemming from Trump’s plans to impose tariffs of as a lot as 25% on Canada and Mexico and the looming debt ceiling although, historically, the latter has not had a serious bearish impression on risk property.

“Markets acquired a stark reminder of life beneath President Trump, with further volatility-inducing rhetoric,” QCP Capital acknowledged,.

Nonetheless, observers keep optimistic.

“No matter a usually disappointing first day for cryptocurrencies beneath the model new administration, Bitcoin managed to remain firmly above $101K, sidestepping the dreaded ‘sell-the-news’ affect,” Valentin Fournier, an analyst at BRN, well-known. Fournier added that whereas regulatory progress and modifications to nationwide reserves might take time, circumstances are anticipated to reinforce throughout the coming weeks.

The debut of the TRUMP memecoin over the weekend marked “a elementary shift throughout the American digital asset panorama, lastly attracting new customers, notably into BTC and SOL,” primarily based on Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Shopping for and promoting.

“This phenomenon could be seen as a twin narrative: a serious price creation in TRUMP, initially pushed by intra-market rotation, which later sparked modern capital inflows as elementary patrons acknowledged the broader constructive catalysts for digital property,” Benayoun acknowledged. Hold alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Jan. 21: MicroStrategy (MSTR) shareholders vote on rising the accepted share capital to help fund bitcoin purchases.
  • Jan. 23: First deadline for SEC willpower on NYSE Arca’s proposal to itemizing and commerce shares of Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL), a closed-end perception, as an ETF.
  • Jan. 25: First deadline for SEC picks on proposals for 4 spot solana ETFs: Bitwise Solana ETF, Canary Solana ETF, 21Shares Core Solana ETF and VanEck Solana Trust, which can be all sponsored by Cboe BZX Commerce.
  • Jan. 29: Ice Open Network (ION) mainnet launch.
  • Feb. 4: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) experiences Q4 2024 earnings.
  • Feb. 4: Pepecoin (PEPE) halving. At block 400,000, the reward will drop to 31,250 pepecoin.
  • Feb. 5, 3:00 p.m.: Boba Network’s Holocene hard fork group enhance for its Ethereum-based L2 mainnet.
  • Feb. 12: Hut 8 Corp. (HUT) experiences Q4 2024 earnings.
  • Feb. 15: Qtum (QTUM) hard fork group enhance is scheduled to occur at block 4,590,000.
  • Feb. 20: Coinbase World (COIN) experiences Q4 2024 earnings.
• Macro
  • Jan. 21, 8:00 a.m.: The U.S. Treasury will start taking “extraordinary measures” to stop the federal authorities from breaching the $36.1 trillion debt limit.
  • Jan. 21, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases December’s Consumer Price Index.
    • Core Inflation Cost MoM Prev. -0.1%.
    • Core Inflation Report YoY Prev. 1.6%.
    • Inflation Cost MoM Est. -0.7% vs. Prev. 0%.
    • Inflation Cost YoY Est. 1.7% vs. Prev. 1.9%.
  • Jan. 22, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases December’s Industrial Product Price Index.
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.8% vs. Prev. 0.6%.
    • PPI YoY Prev. 2.2%.
  • Jan. 22, 10:00 a.m.: The Conference Board releases December’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) report for the U.S.
    • MoM Est. -0.1% vs. Prev. 0.3%.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • ApeChain is voting on a revamped governance course of for 75% of the on-chain treasury to be directed to the DAO treasury contract and the remaining 25% to the Ape Foundation for administrative and help capabilities. Voting began Jan. 17 and might ultimate for 13 days.
  • CoW DAO is discussing the potential allocation of 80 million COW to empower the core treasury employees for extra liquidity provisioning, monetary options, and the occasion of the DAO’s product roadmap from 2025 to 2028.
  • Jan. 22: Mantle (MNT) will host a livestream with updates on its 2025 roadmap. at 8 a.m.
• Unlocks
  • Jan. 21: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.6% of circulating present value $76 million.
  • Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating present value $626 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 21: Bybit is itemizing Solayer (LAYER).
  • Jan. 22: Jambo (J) is itemizing on OKX, Bitfinex and Bybit.

Conferences:

Token Converse

By Shaurya Malwa

Donald and Melania Trump’s official memecoins have impressed wannabe token creators to concern tokens primarily based totally on totally different relations. One such token themed after son Barron Trump merely rug pulled for tens of tens of millions of {{dollars}}.

A spoof X account impersonating Barron promoted a BARRON token, which quickly gained traction reaching a peak market cap of $87 million.

Initially, a serious amount of liquidity was added to make the token appear respected and encourage shopping for and promoting. Nonetheless, it seems the token was designed to deceive from the start. As quickly because the token reached a extreme buy amount, all liquidity was away from the token swimming swimming pools inflicting the value to crash.

On-chain watchers estimated on the very least $1 million value of Solana’s SOL tokens have been extracted throughout the rug pull, primarily based totally on preliminary searching for and final selling transactions.

Even some commerce observers have been take in.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open curiosity in TRUMP perpetual futures has elevated 8%, suggesting the value drop is on the very least partly led by modern shorts. Reverse is the case for AAVE as prices have risen alongside an uptick in open curiosity.
• Aside from AAVE, most primary money, along with BTC and ETH, have seen damaging open interest-adjusted CVD, a sign of net selling stress.
• BTC and ETH calls keep pricier than locations, nevertheless the title bias is weaker than a day previously.
• Prime block trades for the day embody BTC bull title spreads and some outright longs in ETH calls, primarily based on data provide Amberdata, Deribit and Paradigm.

Market Actions

• BTC is down 0.3% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $103,280.72 (24hrs: -4.66%)
• ETH is down 0.43% at $3,307.05 (24hrs: -1.97%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.27% at 3,960.57 (24hrs: -5.14%)
• Ether staking yield is up 27 bps at 3.58%
• BTC funding cost is at -0.0026% (-2.9% annualized) on OKX

• DXY is down 0.56% at 108.74
• Gold is up 0.36% at $2,718.39/oz
• Silver is unchanged at $30.48/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed +0.32% to 39,027.98
• Grasp Seng closed +0.91% to twenty,106.55
• FTSE is unchanged at 8,521.58
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,160.68
• DJIA closed on Friday +0.78% to 43,487.83
• S&P 500 closed +1% to 5,996.66
• Nasdaq closed +1.51% to 19,630.20
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed on Monday +0.41% to 25,171.58
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.23% to 2,258.33
• U.S. 10-year Treasury is down 4 bps at 4.59%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.44% at 6,060.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 21,698.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Frequent Index futures are up 0.33% at 43,841.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 58.70
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.03193
• Hashrate (seven-day transferring frequent): 786 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $60.7
• Complete Prices: 12.37 BTC/ $1.3M
• CME Futures Open Curiosity: 188,825 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 37.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.74%

Technical Analysis

• BTC stays in bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud no matter Trump failing to say crypto or strategic BTC reserve Monday.
• The resilience might entice further customers to the market, in all probability leading to report highs.

Crypto Equities

• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed on Monday at C$31.15 (+4.04%).
• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Friday at $396.50 (+8.04%), down 2.22% at $387.70 in pre-market.
• Coinbase World (COIN): closed at $295.48 (+4.92%), down 0.65% at $293.55 in pre-market.
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.91 (+8.8%), down 0.5% at $19.81 in pre-market.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (0.67%), down 0.3% at $13.35 in pre-market.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15 (+2.53%), up 0.47% at $15.07 in pre-market.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.87 (+6.17%), up 0.51% at $11.93 in pre-market.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.37 (+3.13%).
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $64.68 (+11.06%), down 1.52% at $63.70 in pre-market.
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $38.51 (+1.69%), up 8.47% at $41.77 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

U.S. exchanges have been closed on Jan. 20 in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

The ETF data beneath is from Jan. 17 and stays unchanged.

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Every day net flow into: $1072.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $38.18 billion
• Complete BTC holdings ~ 1.11 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Every day net flow into: $23.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.66 billion
• Complete ETH holdings ~ 3.67 million.

Provide: Farside Investors

In a single day Flows

Chart of the Day

• The availability of stablecoins on the Solana blockchain has virtually doubled since October.
• Most of that’s in USDC, the world’s second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin.

Whereas You Had been Sleeping

• U.S. to Hit Debt Ceiling on Tuesday. Will Bitcoin Soar or Suffer? (CoinDesk): The U.S. Treasury begins extraordinary measures to stay away from breaching the $36.1 trillion debt limit. Historically, drawdowns throughout the Treasury Primary Account (TGA), the federal authorities’s cash reserve, have coincided with bitcoin price will improve.
• TRUMP, MELANIA Tokens Plunge 50% as Trump Inauguration Fails to Buoy Bitcoin (CoinDesk): Memecoins TRUMP and MELANIA fell sharply post-inauguration no matter shopping for and promoting volumes exceeding many primary tokens. QCP Capital speculates that TRUMP’s launch on Solana highlights the chain, in all probability aiding U.S. SOL ETF prospects.
• World Liberty Financial Buys $112.8 Million in Crypto on Trump’s First Day in Office (The Block): On Monday, World Liberty Financial, a Trump-linked crypto enterprise, commemorated his inauguration by spending an entire of $112.8M on ETH, wBTC, AAVE, LINK, TRX and ENA.
• Trump’s Plans for Canada, Mexico Tariffs Send Dollar Higher (The Wall Highway Journal): The U.S. buck rose in the direction of the Canadian buck and Mexican peso after Trump’s proposed tariffs. Asian markets confirmed blended actions, whereas oil prices fell as Trump pledged expanded U.S. manufacturing.
• ECB’s Kazimir Sees Three to Four More Cuts Starting Next Week (Bloomberg): Peter Kazimir, an ECB Governing Council member, expects a cost reduce subsequent week and presumably three further. He warns of risks from U.S. commerce insurance coverage insurance policies and inflationary pressures from import prices.
• China Stocks, Yuan Cautiously Firm After Trump Delays Tariffs (Reuters): Chinese language language shares and the yuan rose cautiously after Trump prevented imposing instantaneous tariffs, offering short-term assist. China is specializing in technological innovation and stimulating shopper spending to boost progress.

Inside the Ether